پژوهشنامه بازرگانی
پیاپی 87 (تابستان 1397)

The increase in intermediate imports at macroeconomic level in recent years has motivated measuring the indirect import dependency from origin, destination and policies in this paper. For this purpose two symmetric input-output tables for the years 1380 and 1390 at the constant prices of 1390 are used. The overall findings are as follows: one, the industry, agricultural and services sectors appear to have high import dependency from the origin. Second, the industry, construction and agricultural sectors have high import dependency from the destination. Third, by analyzing the intermediate import dependency from policy perspective during this decade, it obvious that industry sector has the most import dependency from policy perspective and if other sectors selected as policy sectors, the most intermediate imports are done through Industry sector. Fourth, during these yeats intermediate import dependency from policy perspective has an increasing trend.

Tourism as a sector with high employment, by attracting foreign exchange earnings, in today's world is an iconic industry. With regard to the economic impact of the industry, if the potential of the country's capacities can be used for optimal growth and prosperity the impact of the industry on various economic sectors, can be one of the ways to get rid of single-product economy and achieve sustainable development.
After a literature review of studies, the aim of this study was to identify factors affecting tourism employment as well as employment forecast by the industry. For this purpose, the econometric method (OLS) and system dynamics method are used. The tourism industry is a dynamic and complex system so that quality is a quantitative method have been used. The results show that the tourism industry does not require high initial capital. Arrival of foreign tourists will create direct, indirect and induced jobs and economic growth accelerates. So because of the important role of foreign tourists in the economy it is necessary to pay more attention to the tourism industry.

Supplier selection and order allocation in the process of purchasing relief items during critical conditions are important issues. In this paper, the mixed approach of Multi-criteria decision making and mathematical programming model have been represented in order to select suppliers and allocate orders in the framework of Multi-attribute reverse auction. The suggested approach has been modeled focusing on bid evaluation phase in
Two stage. In the first stage, each participator in the bid is ranked using the Fuzzy-PROMETHEE method as the supplier of assistance items regarding effective quantitative and qualitative criteria. In the second stage, suitable suppliers are selected based on priorities of the first stage, in the frame of a multi-objective fuzzy mathematical model in order to determine the optimal size of ordering. Disruption risk in both distribution centers and suppliers, as well as the uncertainty including major features of the mathematical model have been represented. In this paper, multi-objective robust possibility programming (MORPP) approach has been used in order to eliminate the uncertainty of parameters related to purchasing assistance items within the humanitarian relief supply chains. To solve the multi-objective model the augmented e-constraint method has been considered. Finally, calculation results are indicative of better performance and efficiency of the MORPP approach to solve purchasing assistance items problem.

The new business orientation, using the concept of customer concentration, has raised the operational risk of customers as a controversial topic in financial and accounting literature. Hence, the impact of the client's operational risk on the size of the organization's activities, including financing activities, is important. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the risk of customer concentration on the cost of equity in the Listed Companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, the data for 79 companies during the period from 2009 to 2014 have been investigated through hybrid data analysis. Herfindal-Hirschman and Entropy have been used to calculate customer concentration. The results indicate that the impact of risk of customer concentration calculated using both Herfindal-Hirschman index and Entropy on the cost of equity is positive and significant. The findings of this study indicate the undeniable importance of the major customers in the market, which in addition to revealing the need to pay attention to such customers is also practical for managers as well for how the financing costs are tailored to the degree of concentration of the company's customers. The findings of this study could improve the decision-making processes of investors.

Considerable reserves of oil endowment coupled with oil's lion share of export revenues have brought in high economic dependence on oil revenues giving rise to oil dominant role in public budgeting and policy making and thus higher level of vulnerability to global oil shocks. Therefore, designing monetary policies that are consistent with Iran's economic structure and help secure macroeconomic stability is of utmost importance.
This article seeks to examine 2 cases of Central Bank reaction function within a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model customized to the intrinsic characteristics of Iran economy. In case one, policymaking is based on level of output, deviation of actual inflation from target as well as exchange rate where in case two, policymaking is based on output gap, deviation of future inflation from target And exchange rate while both cases allow for use of policy experiences. Moreover, in order to minimize prediction error of DSGE model and to ensure theory-data alignment, we have estimated the model by means of BVAR-DSGE hybrid method. After estimating the model using Bayesian approach, we examined the dynamic impact of oil, monetary and exchange rate shocks on macroeconomic variables over the period 1369:1-1392:4. In response to oil and exchange rate shocks, production and inflation drop while the variables rise in response to monetary shocks. Furthermore, positive oil and exchange rate shocks generate an increase in construction spending. Another important finding is that government is encouraged to make policy decisions with more emphasis on prior experiences in order to minimize output gap and to control future inflation

Bank guarantee is one of the important international trade means which is issued to attract trust of purchaser (beneficiary), and to guarantee seller’s obligations. If the seller violates its obligations, purchaser will demand the amount of guarantee. Bank guarantees, basically, are issued in such a way that are payable with beneficiary’s first demand. In some cases, however, because of multilateral or unilateral sanctions, beneficiary could not be paid; this is frequently experienced by Iranian banks and traders. These sanctions based on their source that it would be an international organization or a state, would have different effects on guarantees. Sometimes sanctions have direct effect on guarantees and sometimes it would related to basic contract, and this raises this question that, does the law which put sanction on basic contract extent to guarantees? This paper shows that multilateral and unilateral sanctions have different scope to enforce, and base on this condition they would prevent the payment of guarantees. Base on sanctions regulations and their nature, they also would limit extension of guarantees even if they are only related to basic contract.

Estimating the cost of a project is one of the most important issues in project execution and implementation. EVM is a technique to answer this key topic. In the provided relationships for evaluating and estimating the cost of a project, project performance is assessed on the basis of previous data and information. The purpose of this study is to provide a more accurate estimate of the cost of the project at each stage. In addition to cost performance and past scheduling in this study, quality and risk factors have been investigated. Also, uncertainty in the time of the activities is considered as a variable in calculations and predictions. The results of study through an explained example shows that the addition of two factors such as risk and quality predict 40 percent of the cost of project execution and predicting the future performance of the project and provide more accurate information to the managers and stakeholders for the effective implementation of the project. Also, uncertainty in predicting the duration of activities is Affected by an estimated 35% on the cost estimate